Part 4: Technical Analysis & Portfolio Construction

When To Buy, When To Sell, And How To Build Your Portfolio

Introduction: You've Found A Great Stock - Now What?

You've done your homework:

You've found a quality company at a fair price with strong growth prospects. Now the hard questions:

  • When exactly should I buy it?
  • How much should I invest?
  • When do I sell?
  • How do I build a balanced portfolio?

This final part gives you the practical tools to execute your investment strategy.

PART 1: READING STOCK CHARTS - Finding The Right Entry Point

Why Charts Matter

Fundamental analysis (Parts 1-3) tells you WHAT to buy.
Technical analysis tells you WHEN to buy it.

Even a great stock can drop 20-30% after you buy if your timing is poor. Charts help you avoid buying at peaks and find better entry points.

Understanding Trends

GRAPH 13: The Three Trends

UPTREND (BUY ZONE)

  • Price making higher highs and higher lows
  • Each dip is followed by a bigger rally
  • Action: Buy dips, hold

SIDEWAYS/CONSOLIDATION

  • Price bouncing between support and resistance
  • No clear direction
  • Action: Wait for breakout

DOWNTREND (AVOID ZONE)

  • Price making lower highs and lower lows
  • Each rally is followed by bigger drop
  • Action: Don't buy, or sell if you own
The Golden Rule: Only buy stocks in clear uptrends. Never try to "catch a falling knife" in downtrends.

Support And Resistance Levels

SUPPORT: A price level where the stock tends to stop falling and bounce back up (buyers step in)

RESISTANCE: A price level where the stock tends to stop rising and pull back (sellers step in)

GRAPH 14: Support & Resistance Levels
Key Insight:
Buy near support (£100-£105) = lower risk, better entry
Avoid buying near resistance (£115-£120) = likely to drop
Breakout above £120 = new uptrend starting (buy signal)
Break below £100 = downtrend starting (sell signal)

Real Example: Apple Stock (2023)

Date Price Technical Signal Decision
Jan 2023 £125 At resistance, overbought DON'T BUY - wait
Mar 2023 £150 Broke through resistance strongly BUY - breakout confirmed
May 2023 £180 At new resistance, extended DON'T BUY - overextended
Jul 2023 £165 Pulled back to old resistance (now support) BUY - healthy pullback
Sep 2023 £145 Sharp drop, broke support SELL - trend broken
The Lesson:
• Buying at £150 (breakout) or £165 (pullback) = good entries
• Buying at £125 or £180 (resistance) = poor timing, likely to drop
• Don't chase prices - wait for pullbacks to support

Moving Averages: The Trend's Best Friend

Moving Average (MA): The average stock price over X days, plotted as a smooth line.

Most Common:

GRAPH 15: Moving Averages In Action

BULLISH SIGNALS (Time to buy):

  • Price above both MAs = strong uptrend
  • ✓✓ 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA = "Golden Cross"
  • Price pulls back to 50-day MA and bounces = healthy dip

BEARISH SIGNALS (Time to sell):

  • Price below both MAs = downtrend
  • ❌❌ 50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA = "Death Cross"
  • Price breaks below 200-day MA = long-term trend broken

Volume: The Truth Detector

Volume = Number of shares traded that day

Why it matters: Price moves mean MORE when accompanied by high volume.

The Rules:

  • Price up + high volume = Strong buying, sustainable move
  • Price down + high volume = Strong selling, serious trouble
  • Price up + low volume = Weak move, likely to reverse
  • Price down + low volume = Not much concern, could bounce
GRAPH 16: Volume Analysis

PART 2: ENTRY STRATEGIES - Optimal Ways To Buy

Strategy 1: The Dip Buy Low Risk

When to use: Stock in strong uptrend, pulls back to support

How it works:

  1. Identify strong uptrend (price above 50 & 200-day MA)
  2. Wait for pullback to support level or moving average
  3. Buy when price bounces off support
  4. Set stop-loss below support

Example:

  • Apple trending up, trading at £180
  • Pulls back to £165 (50-day MA)
  • You buy at £166
  • Set stop-loss at £160 (below MA)
  • Risk: £6 per share (3.6%)
  • If it works, ride it to £190+

Best for: Conservative investors, buying in established trend at support

Strategy 2: The Breakout Buy Moderate Risk

When to use: Stock breaks through major resistance on high volume

How it works:

  1. Stock consolidating at resistance for weeks/months
  2. Price breaks above resistance with strong volume
  3. Buy on the breakout or slight pullback
  4. Set stop-loss below breakout point

Example:

  • Stock stuck at £100 resistance for 3 months
  • Breaks to £105 on 3x normal volume
  • You buy at £106
  • Set stop-loss at £98
  • Risk: £8 per share (7.5%)
  • Target: £125+ (new territory)

Best for: Growth investors, higher risk/higher reward

Strategy 3: The Dollar-Cost Average Low Risk

When to use: You love the stock but not sure about timing

How it works:

  1. Divide your investment into 3-5 equal parts
  2. Buy one part now
  3. Buy additional parts over 4-8 weeks
  4. Average entry price, reduce timing risk

Example:

  • You want to invest £5,000 in Microsoft
  • Buy £1,000 now at £350
  • Buy £1,000 next month at £340 (price dropped)
  • Buy £1,000 month 3 at £360 (price rose)
  • Buy £1,000 month 4 at £355
  • Buy £1,000 month 5 at £365
  • Average cost: £354 (smooth out volatility)

Best for: Beginners, spread out risk, emotional comfort

GRAPH 17: Entry Strategy Comparison

PART 3: EXIT STRATEGIES - When To Sell

The Hardest Part Of Investing

Buying is easy. Selling is hard. Here's when to exit:

Reason 1: Price Target Hit

Set targets based on valuation:

Reason 2: Fundamental Deterioration

From Part 3 - Red flags appearing:

Action: Sell immediately, don't wait for recovery

Reason 3: Technical Breakdown

Price action says something's wrong:

Action: Sell and ask questions later

Reason 4: Portfolio Rebalancing

Position became too large:

The Trailing Stop-Loss Strategy

What it is: A stop-loss that moves up as the stock rises

How it works:

  1. Buy stock at £100
  2. Set 15% trailing stop (will sell if drops 15% from peak)
  3. Stock rises to £150 → stop is now at £127.50
  4. Stock rises to £180 → stop is now at £153
  5. Stock drops to £152 → YOU'RE STILL HOLDING
  6. Stock drops to £151 → AUTOMATICALLY SOLD at £153
Benefits:
• Locks in gains as stock rises
• Removes emotion from selling
• Lets winners run

Best for: Growth stocks in strong uptrends
GRAPH 18: Trailing Stop-Loss Visualization

PART 4: BUILDING YOUR PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Construction Basics

Don't put all eggs in one basket. Here's how to diversify properly:

The Core-Satellite Strategy

CORE (60-70% of portfolio):

  • Large, stable companies
  • Proven business models
  • Lower volatility
  • Examples: Microsoft, Apple, Visa, Johnson & Johnson

SATELLITE (30-40% of portfolio):

  • Higher growth potential
  • Smaller companies
  • More volatile
  • Examples: Emerging tech, small-caps, international
GRAPH 19: Portfolio Allocation Model (£10,000 Example)

Sector Diversification

Don't concentrate in one industry. Spread across sectors:

Sector Allocation Example Companies
Technology 20-25% Apple, Microsoft, Google
Healthcare 15-20% Pfizer, J&J, UnitedHealth
Financials 10-15% Visa, JPMorgan, BlackRock
Consumer 10-15% Amazon, Nike, Coca-Cola
Industrials 5-10% Boeing, Caterpillar
Energy 5-10% ExxonMobil, Renewable companies
Other 15-20% REITs, International, Emerging
Why diversify sectors?
• If tech crashes, healthcare might hold up
• Economic cycles affect sectors differently
• Reduces portfolio volatility
GRAPH 20: Sector Allocation

Position Sizing: How Much To Invest In Each Stock

The Rules:

1. No single stock >10% of portfolio (20% max for highest conviction)

  • If £10,000 portfolio → max £1,000-2,000 per stock
  • Prevents disaster if one stock crashes

2. Start small, add on strength

  • Buy 50-60% of intended position first
  • Add more if thesis proves correct
  • Allows you to average up with conviction

3. Size by conviction and risk

  • High conviction, low risk: 8-10% position
  • High conviction, high risk: 3-5% position
  • Moderate conviction: 2-4% position
  • Speculative: 1-2% position

Real Portfolio Example: £20,000 To Invest

CORE HOLDINGS (£13,000 - 65%):

Microsoft

£2,500

12.5%

Strong moat, profitable, growing

Visa

£2,000

10%

Payment network, recession-resistant

Johnson & Johnson

£1,500

7.5%

Healthcare, dividends, defensive

Procter & Gamble

£1,500

7.5%

Consumer staples, recession-proof

S&P 500 ETF

£3,000

15%

Instant diversification

Berkshire Hathaway

£2,500

12.5%

Warren Buffett's picks

SATELLITE HOLDINGS (£7,000 - 35%):

NVIDIA

£1,500

7.5%

AI growth play, higher risk/reward

Sea Limited

£1,000

5%

Emerging markets (SE Asia)

Block (Square)

£1,000

5%

Fintech growth

Shopify

£1,000

5%

E-commerce platform

Emerging Tech ETF

£1,500

7.5%

Basket of growth stocks

Cash Reserve

£1,000

5%

Opportunity fund, buy dips

Portfolio Characteristics:
Diversified across sectors
Mix of growth and stability
No position over 15%
Room to add to winners
Cash for opportunities
GRAPH 21: Your £20,000 Portfolio Breakdown

PART 5: RISK MANAGEMENT

The Rules That Protect Your Capital

Rule 1: Never Risk More Than 2% On One Trade

If you have £10,000:

This limits damage from any single bad decision.

Rule 2: Use Stop-Losses

Mental stops don't work - emotions take over.

Set actual stop-loss orders:

Rule 3: Don't Average Down On Losers

Exception: Only average down if fundamentals improved and thesis still intact

Rule 4: Let Winners Run, Cut Losers Short

Most investors do the opposite:

Do this instead:

GRAPH 22: Disciplined vs Emotional Investor (10 Year Comparison)

FINAL CHECKLIST: Before You Buy Any Stock

✅ FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Parts 1-3)

FINANCIALS:

  • ☐ Profitable with growing revenue
  • ☐ Positive free cash flow
  • ☐ Debt-to-equity <2.0
  • ☐ Strong balance sheet

VALUATION:

  • ☐ P/E reasonable for growth rate
  • ☐ PEG ratio <2.0
  • ☐ Not at 52-week high (unless breakout)

COMPETITIVE POSITION:

  • ☐ Has identifiable moat
  • ☐ Industry in growth phase
  • ☐ Clear growth catalysts
  • ☐ No major red flags

✅ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Part 4)

CHART SETUP:

  • ☐ Price in uptrend
  • ☐ Above 50 & 200-day MA
  • ☐ Near support (not resistance)
  • ☐ No recent high-volume selling

ENTRY PLAN:

  • ☐ Identified entry price
  • ☐ Set stop-loss level
  • ☐ Calculated position size
  • ☐ Know your exit targets

✅ PORTFOLIO FIT

RISK MANAGEMENT:

  • ☐ Position <10% of portfolio
  • ☐ Sector not overweighted
  • ☐ Risk is acceptable (stop-loss level)
  • ☐ Have cash reserve for opportunities

YOUR ACTION PLAN

Week 1: Education

Week 2: Setup

Week 3: Research

Week 4: Execute

Month 2-3: Build

Ongoing: Manage

🎉 Congratulations! You've Completed The Intermediate Guide

You now have a comprehensive framework for stock analysis.

Part 1: Read financial statements to find quality companies

Part 2: Use valuation ratios to ensure fair pricing

Part 3: Analyze moats and growth to predict future success

Part 4: Time your entries, manage risk, build a portfolio

THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSONS

  1. Quality First: Only buy companies with strong fundamentals
  2. Price Matters: Even great companies are bad investments at wrong price
  3. Timing Helps: Use charts to optimize entry points
  4. Diversify: Don't put all eggs in one basket
  5. Manage Risk: Protect your capital first, make money second
  6. Stay Disciplined: Follow your plan, control emotions
  7. Keep Learning: Markets evolve, so must you
Start small. Learn as you go. Build conviction over time.

The stock market rewards patience, discipline, and continuous learning. You've built the foundation - now it's time to practice and refine your skills.

What's Next?

Continue your investing journey with these resources:


Review Part 1 Review Part 2 Review Part 3 Back to Overview

Good luck on your investing journey! Remember to revisit these guides as you gain experience - you'll notice new insights each time.

Created by MarketShift - Making Stock Market Analysis Accessible To Everyone